“It’s tough to find the good guys.Fortunately we found one. The housing herd is disconnecting from what the data is showing. The current “ happy housing news” that is all the rage seems to draw a parallel with the pundits who got the election outcome all wrong yet all were experienced in politics. They would see the green arrows pointing up on CNBC screen and it became very hard to be contrarian and be left behind. Many people during the housing boom saw it was a bubble but didn’t want to miss out.During the bubble, for every $1 in mortgages, Wall Street was making $50 in side bets.Wall Street, rating agencies, government, banks, real estate agents etc. Real estate, like politics, is a spin laden industry whose health is very difficult to gauge if you rely on people and institutions who have a vested interest in the outcome. What I found intriguing about the discussion is how much effort it takes to filter out the noise and get the to meat of the issue as well as getting outside of your self-made insulated bubble to be able to make an informed decision – aka neutrality.
I recently bought Nate’s book “ The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don’t” and it’s next on my reading list (actually I bought 2 copies because I forgot I had pre-ordered on Amazon for Kindle and ordered again from Apple iBooks, Doh!).
Serious jibber jabber tv#
I really enjoyed this “Charlie Rose”-like interview by late night TV host Conan O’Brien and statistician Nate Silver on his “Serious Jibber-Jabber” series.
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